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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	1/4/2001 9:14:28 AM
From: Temple Williams	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Europe bailed out early this morning. You can see it in the dropping Globex prices which started after 2:30 am (EST). That reaction to the Greenie Bar is important to remember. Because if the foundation of European investment in US equities continues (lots of reasons, from a diving dollar to new Internal Revenue regulations on "US equity ownership" in foreign accounts) ... if the dollar-denominated drain continues, then an important source of fuel for a price push higher disappears with it. I believe this will be a fundamental reason why the bear market continues. Why invest in a market that throws two strikes against you every time you pull the trigger (a declining dollar as well as declining prices)? However ... I also do not think the US market gets in real trouble for another 4-5 months. Right now, the move higher should continue lurching forward ... an exhilarated average drunk on rate cuts yet-to-come ... stumbling forward, forgetting where it's going, leaning on lamposts, eventually rushed to the hospital to have its stomach pumped ... then the shaking and quaking of drying out ... and finally sobriety so we can move forward again. It can take years ... and it is always just one pop away from going off the wagon and wobbling back towards disaster. Gonna be a tough trading environment. Already is. Keep your head, play safe, don't gamble ... and it can be the best of times for a good trader.

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