CORRECTED/SJS, I don't think we have to retest bottom.Not if
you've had
the biggest drop in Nasdaq history
lasting 9 months.
You don't always have to be shot in the head twice to be
pronounced dead.
The 2000 Bear Market was unusual in many respects and so we
have to allow for that.
-modern, same-day supply manufacturing
-faster lead times
-computer program trading
-prolonged election and
end of year tax selling
-uncle sam trying to bust softie
If you go back to 1972 you will see that recessions
have been shorter and shorter.
Considering the amount of cash lost by investors you can say
recession has already been here, vbg
There is no inflation no high unemployment.
Thus we don't have the fundamentals for a recession.
We now have more layoffs.
That gives companies room to manoeuvre and will
restrain wages.
Looks good to me.
Now wait till GWBush sings........
:-)
TA
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Message #15795 from SJS at Jan 4, 2001 10:35 AM
Absolutely not Pat. Warnings season continues for over 3 more weeks. In fact, 30-40% of all the warnings will come this month.
My point is that we're already going to either have a recession, or just skirt one. These cuts, in order to stave off a near recession, should have been in mid-late 2000, ie, reversing the 50 bp raise in June.
In fact, that 50bp raise in 2000 was, as we shall soon see, unnecessary.
Mr. Shobin's point is that he's laying a good foundation for a strong up cycle again, but can't stop what's already been created.
Steve
PS: Yesterday's reaction, while fun, was emotional. I agree with many technicians that in order to determine if we've seen the bottom, we've got to test bottom point again.
Ugly thought, but technically valid.
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