TIME OUT !!!! ... honestly; what are you guys smokin' ?
re: Warpo - "contrarian" ? - well I guess so; since I was virtually alone at NAZ 3200-3500 calling for a dip to 2558ish & putting my money where my mouth was.
Contrarian on the E&P's ? - yes; again - certainly the "only one" here taking that position directly into this "peak" appearing so openly, so clearly and with a literal "sell me" sign on it's "Too Perfect Storm" forehead (VBG).
But, actually Warpo; what I have been above all - is a "Pig" and not a "Hog" - I've continually got fat - hitting the middle 65%ish of the move; yes, occassionally exiting too early & leaving a little money on the table on both the short & the downside - but; that's how you play late cycle & high volatility & high risk markets FYI....
So; I'll glady wear your "contrarian" tag - because you guys have been thinking like slugs here of late & acting like neophyte cheerleading imbecille's... reacting, not acting & getting "used" by the markets volatility & not using it... all I see is a bunch of mindless cheerleading & backslapping drivel here of late.
re: Winkman - "Congrats to all who rode the NAZ rocket today."
...hmmmmm; the "NAZ Rocket" ?
- winkman; how about a little reality check - like a chart:
finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=3mm
For the last 90 days; the NAZ has never hit its 200 dma, or 50 dma and it has not had 3 up days in a row for like 6 months.
If that's a rocket - JQP don't squat to pee... ;)
The NAZ since my post calling for 2558 - that was met with near unanimous chastisement & multiple celebrations of the same vein as we are seeing today on any one day wonder moves; was obviously correct.
The NAZ has fallen from 3500 in an unbroken downward trendline - period; again Winkman - if that's a Rocket - you're an imbecille.
Celebrating a 2 day net +6% move over the last 48 hours in the NAZ is ludicrous. This type of volatility is very negative & definitely not a positive.
The only person who theoretically would deserve congrats is someone who had yet to buy any tech stocks & happened to wander in yesterday to establish a fresh position & uhknowingly hit the intra-day suprise Fed Cut announcment lotto - but who "ALSO" sold & I am sure out of 120 Million Investors out there - there were 3, or 4 who did that (roflmao)...
I find it hard to celebrate blind luck - as a mid-day surprise Fed Announcement is hardly part of any strategy.
This is like a football game where you're behind 48 - 0 in the 4th quarter & finally score a touchdown & going beserk and tear down the goal posts celebrating.... hello ?
That's idiocy & it's merely Happelesque day late & dollar short; jumping on the bandwagon hystrionics... nothing more; nothing less.
Still an unbroken downward trendline - still the NAZ hasn't mounted 3 up days in a row - NOW; "that" might be a FUNDAMENTAL sign of Nasdq strength to wait for before re-entering long, or celebrating about.... still the NAZ hasn't broken thru it's 50, or 200 dma for 90+ days; again - that would at least be cause for "some" celebration - that the pain at least had eased anyway (VBG).
I am sorry, but anyone who's cheerleading tech here - is quite frankly a moron; yes a literal moron that I have no repect for....
The Fed Cut did not address a single FUNDAMENTAL (there's that word again) problem in the NAZ.
All those technology & internet IPO's who were flush with Cap Ex $ who no longer exist, or who if they do - no longer have Cap Ex $ to spend, or access to the bond, or equity markets to raise more; no longer are factors to power the Tech move - "it's the Cap Ex - Stupid" etc...
The bigger problem of still too high valuations & falling earnings AND revenue growth - were not answered by the Fed.
What Greenspan did was to upstage Bush & throw a little "train wreck" into his plans of a tax cut.
I got a little "research note" alert passed along that has painted a very dangerous future politically & economically for this market.
The Bush/O'Neill & Greenspan camps despise each other & are working diametrically against each other. - there are & will be at war.
That is not a "good thing" as Martha would say...
There is not just bad blood between the "Bush's & Greenspan" - there is open hatred.
Soft Dollar O'Neill's appointment as Treas Sec mixes with Greenspan like Oil & Water.
There is rampant commentary that Greenspan was acting on 3 fronts - none of them positive yesterday.
1. Tuesday saw a huge repatriation of foreign funds - literally a near one day unprecedented "run" on the US markets by foreign investors - this was the Key reason the Fed intervened so quickly and to the tune of a nearly unheard of .50 bp cut. - but; that foreign repatriation was not just because of falling NAZ prices - it's because of the inevitable weaker dollar as it's obvious the Fed will need to continue cutting rates.
2. Greenspan also politically got to upstage Bush yesterday given his economic summit & he did. He also got to throw that little monetary policy train wreck in front of Bush's Tax Cut proposal.
3. It is openly acknowleged that Greenspan will leave the Fed in late 2001 and politically he's dusting he & Rubin's trail (read the Clinton/Greenspan/Rubin legacy) - delaying the when, not if - "Very Hard" landing that is coming; which will land the blame for the coming RECESSION cleanly in Bush's political lap.
The Fed's biggest mistake was the reckless expansion of money supply & credit. That created the bubble and easing credit & expanding monetary supply again here before it was all sucked out of this bubble market; is a trap for Greenspan - he had no choice; he loses either way. So all he's doing here is protecting his & Rubin/Clinton's economic legacy; postponing the inevitable hard landing & postponing that landing out a few months forward (after his retirement) and directly into GW's political lap....
This is "bitter medicine" time economically & no one is willing politically to dish it out...
There are few, very few high reward/low-moderate risk potential plays in this market.
I still say:
#1 is "short the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's
#2 is Gold & Silver as the Fed must continue to cut rates; the initial cuts will create a head fake rally in the equity markets; but the trendline down will remain unbroken & economically it is much, much too late to stop a hard landing/recession. And as the Fed continues to cut; FUNDAMENTALLY (there's that word again) the Dollar weakens when the Fed Cuts & Gold trades in opposiiton to the US Dollar; a weak dollar = strong Price of Gold.
Oilpatchwise.... it's still profit taking into all major breakouts & rotation time.... This last E&P leg was a profit taking & rotation move. Drillers & especially later cycle service are the play on weakness. But, there is still a great chance of another OSX 80's-90's buying opp; as untill the "how soft is soft" answer about the US economy appears; there is no bottom in place & no green light yet.
The MOAB opps is still in the cards - economic reality & the Fed being too late dictates that still strong possibility of NAZ sub 2000, DOW 8500ish & and an OSX 80-90 buying opp
There's better odds playing some fat & inflated DOW stocks on the downside that were flight to safety havens during this NAZ-wreck; as well as the NG pureplays here short; than trying to "catch" a NAZ falling knife - when it STILL FUNDAMENTALLY has not had 3 up days in a row, hit its 50, or 200 dma....
The fallacy that Rate Cuts are an automatic cure is sheer stupidity.
... Look at Japan's "zero interest rates" as the Nikkei collapsed if you think rate cuts prop up bubble markets as they inevitably correct & give back their speculative excess...
I'll remain:
Sitting Golden Bull & I'll pick off a couple of longsided bounces; but remaining patient to pick my spots - just aiming for the middle 65% of the move - staying a Pig, but never a Hog in this high risk & low reward market environment & shorting all the irrational exhuberance and allways shorting the SI SD investor sentiment meter excess - like we are seeing upon the top of this historic "TOO PERFECT STORM" confluence of events in the Nat Gas stocks....
By the way; what's Oil doing here today - with a Fed Cut, with the end of tax selling, with the OPEC cuts... with record earnings etc... with everything positive that everyone was pointing to; what's the oilpatch doing today ?
... I rest my case. |
