The View to a Kill from Jiaxing.
The partners, wife and I are in Jiaxing, about an hour’s drive from Hangzhou and Shanghai, working with some private companies to package a bundle of roads, ports, power plants and such old economy stuff. This is a very bleak environment but dynamic business place. The platinum watch is making a proper impression here and it looks like uncle Al is insisting on paying for it after all (hoping he succeeds).
When Japan, Hong Kong or Taiwan government manipulated the equity market, the WSJ shouts at the top of its dreary lungs: “manipulation by government”. And now, the press’s and Bush’s high praise for Greenspan’s urgently needed corrective action. I do not see the self serving double standard irony, as it has smack me face down in the mud, unable to see anything.
The US will recover much faster than Japan, maybe within 24 months, while I am not sure Japan will ever recover in SI’s life time. Japan may simply slip below the waves altogether, weighed down by the heavy burden of their idle capital, sheltered, demoralized and fast degenerating people. They may even once again turn to a false god born of the empire days.
The US will recover as long as it keeps its capital market and borders open, laws fair and transparent (could use some simplification and MSFT could use a break), Congress in check, and carrier fleets fueled. One other thing, uncle Al must be retired as the folks out here do not want to be taken for a ride by that kindly but irresponsible gentleman. The money is at the ballroom’s fire exit, looking for a fast pickup vehicle. The pickup will appear, as the money is attractive.
The US will also need an invigoration of its manufacturing sector, as opposed to simply the designing and labeling that the CSCOs do. Human capital is simply too human, optioned and option-able. Land, buildings, equipment, warehouses, and now you are talking my language.
When the price is right, there will be plenty of folks going to the US to shop for ocean frontages, Palo Alto companies, and gad, even treasuries. |
