Chip,
I do not see "stodgy old growth patterns" in the near future. The areas you noted...
Computers:
Certainly a slow down. Why? 2 reasons. 1) Capabilities of computers have overshot demand. Who needs a new one? Except for those without one. 2) The pc is becoming outdated as the trend to separate the processor from the pc continues. See palms etc. There is a reason the pc hardly ever played a role in a sc fi story. Of course 1 & 2 are related to telecommunications. Better networks will drive up requirements for PCs and at the same time accelerate the demise.
Internet:
What is its future? I have no idea. Failure is a result of innovation, as often it takes awhile to find the right recipe. If something innovative is not sufficiently funded its usefulness, assuming one exists, may never be found. Although many firms have not had the funding, and funding for the internet has slowed, the story is still unfolding.
Telecommunications:
Lots of debt, projected over supply, and yet still billions away from the next generation system. This sector and its effect on the next five years wraps so much promise in so much trouble.
Genetic research:
Still on going as it too tries to find usefulness.
Certainly there is a slow down, but stodgy? The disruption in the computer world will continue, the internet remains a change agent, plod does not seem to be telecommunications, and genetic research is not old.
Whether up, down, or sideways, it seems there is too much change and or uncertainty to describe the future as old and plodding.
Lee |
