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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10053)	1/4/2001 11:14:59 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) of 12823

Mike, another big one would be CSCO. As for ALA they already know they numbers......and as of mid of December DSL deployment was on schedule.Even on Nov.28 conf. call with analysts the outlook of Q4 and 2001 was very bright. As of September ALA was talking about 4.5-6 million lines shipment. Later they said it will be closer to hight end of target. Why increase projection, if you know that business is not performing?..... Majority of ALA business comes from large telcos and only minor part from CLECs, and even CLECs like New Edge(USA) served by former Newbridge 350 access platform(now 7350) got big infusion of cash from MSDW and Goldman Sachs, and they are making money! Another example of CLECs would be Kingstom Comm. in UK( with soild cash). With Bell South( want to triple DSL), Verizon and SBC deploying at record rate in Q4 ALA in DSL space should be fine. Recently ALA won several nice contract in Canada( Telus 500$) and Asia. By my calculation DSL revenue in Q4 will not exceed 20% of expacted 10 billion . The rest is core/edge packet switching, mobile, fixed wireless:LMDS(they won lots of contracts this year and Newbridge has contributed significant numbers of contracts too, and has been accelerating shipment shortly before merger) optics, space, optical components. Few huge military contracts in US and Europe in space/ networking helps too For example ALAO ( Alcatel optronics) is expanding in US big way, b/c of demand. If you are big, diversify and have contracts mainly with establish carriers you will do fine in slow period. Alcatel (per Dell Oro)has already been gaining shares to over 52% in Q2 and would not be surprise for me if that number went up in Q4. CSCO was also gaining shares recently. As for LMDS market this year will be 1.4 billion and is expected to double in 2002. And based on large numbers of wins it is likely that ALA will hit its target of 40% of world market shares. Europe seems to be the hottest market for LMDS. Asia, like Australia, S.Korea looks good too. ZO

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