Greg, my perspective is somewhat different. I view the recent 15 years or so of basically a bull market in a similar way that the period of 1950 to 1966 was. You had a generation of investors that have not experienced a bad market in both cases. Once this psychology (buy the dips, LTBH etc.) is broken it take times to rebuild (we had a period of 16 years between 1966 and 1982 with 4 to 6 bear markets, depending how you count), so I doubt that we will resume the normal uptrend as usual any time fast. Right now I see this year as a "trading range" year with late February early March as a good place to get back in, but for a short run, since I expect another two or three major declines in the market, depending on the Fed's action or lack thereof, and particularly on Asia. Tentatively, I have additional lows in mid May and Late August, they may not be lower than the recent low at 2250 on the Naz, particularly, if we manage to get above 3050 before the end of January. If we don't, I still have that target of around 1900 that many here have been pointing out as a possible target.
Zeev |
