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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2881)1/5/2001 10:29:08 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
I was a little bit surprised that today's employment data showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged. I was expecting a .2% increase.

I'm not ready yet to say that the economy isn't rapidly slowing, however.

I think Henry's contention that the unemployment rate will lag this time is very possibly true. Today's release shows the private workweek continued its decline and is approaching its lows of the last 15 years - reached in the 91 recession and the 96 slowdown. Manufacturing hours worked was sharply down the last 3 months and total private hours worked was slightly down over the same period.

This supports the premise that employers are holding on to employees but cutting back on their work.

However, the unchanged rate flies in the face of the increasing initial and continuing claims numbers which are at a level that should be pushing up the unemployment rate. Since the household survey - from which the rate is calculated - is taken in the middle of the month, it's possible that we will see the rate bounce up in next month's report. It is also possible that the household survey was inaccurate this month because it showed a 358,000 increase in employment, which is very different from the more reliable payroll survey.
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