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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2885)	1/5/2001 11:21:23 AM
From: Thomas DeGagne	of 3536

Here is a good article and my reply to the author: How the big tech firms blew it January 05, 2001 12:00 AM PT upside.com An excellent article Stefani. It's good to see that some financial journalist do some research, analysis and thinking before they submit articles. The quality of journalism at Upside (and Red Herring) far surpasses thestreet.com (I think they dictate articles from the NYSE floor!). Your article led me to think along the following lines: Investment earnings have been so important for the big firms (CSCO too) in meeting or beating estimates. Investment earnings are now built in to analysts forecasts. But wait, who has investment earnings in 4Q/2000? The collapse of the NASDAQ will effect the investment earnings of firms as much as the rest of us. If investment earnings relied on IPO proceeds they probably would collapse as well. What saved MSFT, INTC (maybe even CSCO) is now coming back to haunt them. But if these companies are missing earnings in this way then the results of the actual operating activities of these firms must not be that bad! These companies are suffering from a reversal of the wealth effect. And why not I did! The high tech business has cooled off; not collapsed. The Fed rate cut and a rebounding Euro (blammed for previous earnings shortfalls) will help earnings rebound for all firms. I conclude with this prediction: 2001 will be a much better year than 2000. Please let me know if you agree with this thesis.

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