double-bottom on Dow not occuring as expected..I really don't get this Paul.....Either the problems here are worse than the public knows, or the market is underestimating, IMO, Greenspan's ability to pump liquidity into the system rapidly.....this feels like more than just a garden-variety pullback from rally....
If the market keeps falling, and given that the data Greenspan made his decisions on will be about the same come end of Jan....I would think another 50 bp is not out of the question...are we sposed' to sell knowing that? There sure appears to be a Greenspan floor here, but why isn't the market taking more comfort?
Also, if the markets are looking 6 months out (as many say)....are things going to be THAT bad?...give all the liquidity coming into system...likely 6 months of sub $30 oil (U.S. AND Europe)...maybe lower rates in Euro-land too?
Doesn't the Fed also have daily, weekly measures at their disposal to pump liquidity? Aren't they using those now (massively?)
I'm confused....I was worried pre-Fed cut, that the Fed wanted to pull some "macho" BS...let the economy dip into recession to shake out any remaining bubble excess...but since Greenie & co. seem to not be worried about the tech bubble anymore, then I would think we should, at the least, have a decent counter-trend rally...which, in my mind, means at least 2780 (downtrend line) or really 3000...In the last 10 years, there has been A LOT of data that says, "don't bet against the Fed"......once the easing cycle occurs (and one can go back even much further than 10 years), the Fed is the one thing that can change any downtrend, blow-out any trendlines, etc...surely the market knows that...so why the tank? uggh.. |
