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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.17-1.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: John Trader who wrote (41317)1/5/2001 2:06:16 PM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
John, I did some reviewing of the First Calls analysts rating for stocks in my portfolio. The stocks that had the poorest rating as of today were NVLS (2.0) TER (2.2) and LRCX (2.1). Yet over the past 30 days these have held up the best. Right about now I wish I owned only NVLS and TER. (from a performance standpoint). LRCX actually got an upgrade today. The two stocks that show the biggest improvement in analysts ratings are ATML and SSTI and yet they have gone no where. The technicians on these threads (FA & TA) keep bragging up SSTI and ATML because of the shortage of Flash Memory, and the response has been a big yawn.

How many times now have we seen the familiar pattern of one or two up days followed by five down days? Its like watching the history channel and the re-runs of World War II. No matter how many versions of the War you watch it always ends the same. But if the market pattern of late stays the same, then there are probabilities of getting decent returns by either writing covered calls on the one day surges, or buying calls on the third consecutive down day for the sector.

But another unusual pattern is that some companies have definite problems and the stocks are rising. Ford is the best example of this. 1) Tire problems, 2)Sales fall off, 3)earnings estimates reduced and a reduced dividend. And here the stock moves from 22 to 26. It could be that reduced expectations are OK for the investment community as long as the reduced expectations are better than most.

Regards, Jerome
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