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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (54822)1/5/2001 4:44:51 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
if the derivative arena has a major blow-up, it could be that puts won't be honored. however, that wouldn't just require a crash, it would require a complete systemic collapse. something that happens once in a thousand years. i think that highly unlikely, but know of ONE analyst predicting just such an occurrence. he's only uncertain of whether it'll happen this or next year. my own most pessimistic possible scenario (the 2-5% probability type scenario) is for the Dow Indu to hit the 3000'ds sometime late this year. i know, "impossible" ,"heresy". in fact i myself think that the probability for it to reach 13,000 is actually HIGHER. but i do have a range of fibo downside targets that include targets down there. i'm not ruling out ANYTHING. the biggest bubble of all time won't go down smoothly or peacefully or in a manner that allows trapped clowns to get out whole.
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