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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 244.41

+0.6%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: craig crawford who wrote (114522)	1/5/2001 8:54:39 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) of 164684

I can buy the bull case except for sentiment indicators which is still way to optimistic for a lasting bottom. In 1998 the put /call ratio was over 1 for several days in the Sep - Oct period. Number of bullish investment advisors were 38 % in 1998 bottom. Currently bullish investment advisors % is over 50 %. The put/call ratio has spiked but immediately come down. We need to see more fear don't you think to put in a lasting bottom. Plus the consensus on Wednesday was that the market had bottomed because the fed eased and we all know how reliable consensus is. The rally of the Oct 1998 was met with a lot of skepticism. I think its because Greenspan was able to get us out of the mess in 1998 that there is still so much complacency out there in Greenspans ability to bail us out. (In fact you yourself have complete faith in Greenspan )isThats why the sentiment indicators are nowhere close to where they should be to mark a bottom. Thats my bear case. The bull case of course is a lot of liquidity has been added to the system and eventually the economy will turn and the market will turn before the economy turns. Thanks Anindo

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