Greg, getting to know is a two way street. My philosophy since last March has been to rarely stay in for more than few weeks of counter trend bull moves. Since 1900 is a long way off (unless we get a meltdown Monday, which obviously, I am betting against), I am in here for another countertrend move up. Since I have never acquired the mental fortitude to short, I simply get out of the declines and in at what I think are bottoms, I do miss some, of course. My worst tis year was the May bottom, I had May 18th as a bottom, and the actual bottom did not come until the 28th, so I had a bunch of stop losses shavings, but by May 28th, with a large string of -1000 (and worse) tic on the Naz in a row, I was in with both legs.
What I do not like with the current scenario is that the Fed induced rally was not preceded by extreme readings to the down side and the last two days did not see extremes in the tic either. I am not sure what to do with that yet, maybe it is a sign that a large number of smaller stocks are being bid up while the selling volume is going into the large caps (thus the high trin index). If we do not turn sometime during Monday, I'll take a sizeable hair cut, and that is it.
Zeev |
