...As I recall, many then said Sun's best days were past and we would never regain the old highs...
Then I didn't make my point clear (and that was a pretty poor excuse for a comparison, Charles).
I didn't say Sun's in trouble on a fundamental level. I believe HWP is in trouble, IBM will always find a way to screw things up, CPQ I don't know. Anybody that's pinning hopes on Itanic and W2k-64 is in trouble. I believe Sun has frittered away some of the solid lead they had, but I don't believe that their best days are past--they will remain a leader and they could very well kick butt again in 2001. I have groused about execution on new products, but I certainly haven't repeated any limp mantras about the second coming of Wintel, since I believe the opposite. For that mantra see Warlock (alias "Ignore List entry number 58").
What I have said was, SUNW's incredible outperformance for investors has been due to a confluence of factors, only one of which has been its own fundamentals and execution, that is unlikely to recur. Its stock over the next five years will continue to outperform, but always with high risk, high volatility and with less upside than it has had over the last five. That's it. That's all I'm saying. I didn't say sell it. I said I will continue to own it.
It's just that *I'm* not betting the farm anymore, on SUNW or anything else. If that's excessive hand-wringing, so be it.
Like I said, I'll be here in sack-cloth and ashes at $64.
--QS |
