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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.31

0.0%

Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Rowton who wrote (66076)	1/6/2001 9:27:02 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) of 99985

I am bullish. As you hint the markets go up when an interest rate easing cycle starts. I read somewhere today the SP500 has gone up 20% on average in the 12 months following the start of an easing cycle. Just looking for the formations to confirm that the market is going up from here. I figure this situation is a lot like late 98 when there was doom and gloom all around and the market went up... In 1987 people thought the world was coming to an end too :) but it took till 1990 for the the real recession to show up. Basically in the US economy there was a shortage of the three main factors of production: labor (unemployment at 4%), capital (interest rates at 6.5% and the end of the easy IPO era), and resources (high oil and gas prices, electricity shortages). No surprise that the growth rate will slow down. But that doesn't necessarily mean a recession (yet) in terms of actaully declining GDP. David

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