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Politics : The Left Wing Porch
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To: Poet who wrote (2530)1/6/2001 10:27:15 AM
From: AllansAliasRead Replies (1) of 6089
 
In case you have been getting behind in your CFZ reading -g, here are a couple of posts you should not miss:

Message 15135185
Message 15131671

Make no mistake, this week was a victory for the bears. It is nearly unprecedented to see the sort of weekly close we had given the fed's move. They panicked and even the moderately smart money can see it. The real problem all along, as many of us have been saying, is the credit bubble. If one big player falls the whole friggin mess will explode in our faces, and it will do so quite quickly once it gets going. If the market can not turn up the credit bubble faces imminent explosion -- simple as that. (No, I do not mean next week. -g)

The fed funds futures are pricing in as much as another 75bp of cuts, but one has to wonder at this point whether it matters. We are close now to a crisis in confidence. The history books tell us that when that comes to pass, nothing can fix the problem but capitulation and extremely low equity prices.

I think this is a time for caution and a dangerous time to be overly long. As you know, I went neutral before the rate cut this week and now have only a little short exposure based on Friday's action. I have seen them pull a rabbit out of the hat before, so I am not throwing too much at getting short at these levels.

Best of luck. --Allan
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