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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 683.00+0.2%Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Moominoid who wrote (66077)1/6/2001 10:39:17 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (5) of 99985
 
I still think we are in the process of forming a short/intermediate term bottom, But anyone who holds stocks beyond the next few montha on the assumption that the bull has returned will regret it. I expect the NAZ to drop well below 2000 later this year after a countertrend rally to 3000-3200. The magic 10,000 support number for the Dow also will melt like butter in the desert when the final leg of this bear gets underway

The economic and financial distortions of the previous upcycle dwarf by far all others except perhaps the 1920s. The US runs a huge trade deficit that will limit the Fed's ability to slash rates as much as some hope. After an up cycle is strong as the last one, a recession is unavoidable. Only the precise timing and magnitude are in doubt.
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