George--I find myself scratching my head at the "3 phases" guideline this time around--regardless of what Don Hays and Richard Russell suggest must be the case-3 Phases of a Bear means in effect that instead of a simple A dn, B up then C dn (ie 2 dn phases) we do a 1-2-3-4-5 where 1,3 and 5 are the 3 dn phases......But, IF we do end up doing a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave to the downside from the march peak, then after a Retrace, we will have to do yet another 1-2-3-4-5 down---ie the Bear does NOT usually end at the bottom of 5--it ends after the first 12345 is taken out on the downside after a retrace--That implies that IF we see a 12345 this time around (where we're near or at the end of 3 now), then the final Low on the Naz would likely be materially below 1250 eventually when the first 12345 is eventually taken out...I doubt this will occur----To sum up--TWO phases of a Bear is a Retrace move, leading 'ultimately' to new highs, while THREE phases means only the end of the FIRST larger Wave down...My vote is that TWO phases will do it this time around....since I believe that all we are doing here is tracing out one big Wave IV of a larger and longer sequence.
In contrast, the Prechter's of the world are convinced that this is the Big One and that "every mania is followed by a decline that ends BELOW the starting point of the mania"--listing as examples, the dotcoms of 2000, the south sea bubble, the crash of 29, the tulip mania of 1637 and the coin price bubble of 1990. They believe that the mania phase on the Naz is likely in the low teens....We shall see |
