Bob -- What? You didn't load up the truck with LTXX at 10?
In hindsight, that would have been a good move. My own LTXX position was too large a percentage of my overall investment to risk still more. As a consolation, it appears we are being rewarded for hanging in there.
As for the upside....your LT chart seems to indicate that we would need to hit 17 before we get a little clear sailing to the upside. For the time being it appears we have quite a bit of overhead resistance between 15 and 16 3/4 (approx), imho...
And judging from the incoming news, we are not going to be in a friendly environment for ANY tech stocks for a few months... but then that re-emphasizes the strength of stocks like LTXX (another would be CYMI)... when the rest of the tech world is largely backing and filling....
If we can grit our teeth and do a really LT analysis, the LTXX picture looks almost startling. Going with analysts' projections of earnings something like $2.07 next year, and a five year compound growth rate of 31.8% projected, we end up with earnings of $8.23/share. If the stock were to be valued at a PE equal to it's growth rate (31.8), we end up with a price for LTXX in the out years of $261/share (31.8 X $8.23). Discounting that back to the present at a "normal" stock market valuation based on a historical average return of 11% per year, we would end up with a current value for LTXX of $135/share. (The factors, for anyone using a business calculator to run the numbers are term:72 months; monthly interest rate: .91667%; Payment: zero; Future Value: $261. PV calculation then yields slightly over $135).
Leading to some questions: Are the analysts that far off in their projections? Is there some risk in LTXX that far exceeds anything of which we are aware? Why is this stock, allegedly worth $135/share, selling for $15? I have no answers, but really do like the problem..... How about you, Bob?
tso |
