A quick glance at your posting history shows your bias has been negative on a number of stocks for a long time.
Member 561886
There's nothing wrong with a negative bias, but if you want your posts to have teeth, you need to back up your rumors with facts.
Since the market has been in so much turmoil, I've been looking at indicators to see if there's anything I've missed. At this point in time, I see the fiber optics' leaders continuing to be strong and those focused on the voice market --- and those without strong business plans (like CLECs) --- falling off like so many leaves on an autumn tree.
Take a look at the following and if you can find fault with my reasoning, I welcome a healthy point-counter-point. Unfounded rumors will be exposed for what they are: yammerings of a frightened bear.
NT --- announced it will hit Q4 and Q1 numbers:
public.wsj.com
JDSU --- hasn't warned and is expected to see 109.3% y/y EPS growth (my sources say they made the quarter early)
SLR --- (outsourcers for electronics) beat numbers:
biz.yahoo.com
NOK --- Expected to raise estimates:
upside.com
The figures gave some credence to bold predictions that Nokia chief executive officer Jorma Ollila made at an investor's conference in London in December. At the time, Ollila said Nokia would extend its 2001 revenue growth targets of between 25 percent and 35 percent into 2002 and 2003. Ollila also said he thought the mobile-phone market would hit 1 billion subscribers in the first half of 2002, six months ahead of previous industry expectations.
ALA -- hasn't warned and will be good barometer for telecom spending as they have very little exposure to switched voice and a lot to NG/DWDM. Q3 they predicted 35% y/y growth for 2001:
zdii.com
GLW --- announced it will come in at high end of target:
www2.marketwatch.com
CIEN --- topped estimates and raised target for 2001:
yahoo.cnet.com
By looking at the winners, I don't want to down-play the state of the economy and the effect it's had on telecom spending. What I want to do is stay alert to where carriers are spending, not just how much. First and third quarters are traditionally weak, so once we get fourth quarter numbers, we'll immediately be looking for first quarter guidance. I would imagine conference calls will be more closely followed this quarter than any before. I'll be listening to all the usual ones and to some carriers as well.
If Greenspan keeps the economy from falling off the tracks, then the current market offers opportunities we only see once every five or six years. If not, then we'd all be wise to stay out of the market. I've begun nibbling but haven't done anything bold. Besides watching where carriers are spending, I'm watching the Fed and the psychology of the market for signs the lights are green.
Pat |
