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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (88075)	1/8/2001 9:28:58 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Joan: Good comments. Glad to hear that the media is (finally) starting to catch up with the "new reality". Actually, I agree with you on this. More reporters are emulating Gretchen and John Crudele (NY POST) and getting off their fannies. I agree with your thinking on oil. I worry that the slow-down that we are entering will reduce oil demand globally much more than most folks think. There is already some early evidence of this. With what is going on in Latin America already, I don't even want to think about what lower oil prices will do to some of their economies. Incidentally, and as I noted in the fall, the U.S. consumer is pulling his horns in even more as the pink slips start to expand. Of all the things that tend to turn off American consumption, lay-offs are the most important (at least as far as I am concerned). Having already come through a bruising Christmas season, retailers are experiencing severe loneliness so far this year. Not a good sign, especially given the inventories. I agree with your views on real estate. A contraction is just getting underway in the housing sector up here (very early stages yet). Got gold? I see that Solomon has turned keen on it. (g) Best, Earlie

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