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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2929)1/8/2001 11:20:53 AM
From: hobo  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
I am still waiting for a new low to buy NASDAQ stocks, but think the time isn't so bad to be shopping in other areas. I still think the sharpness of this slowdown has not been recognized by most as we will have a coincident slowing in consumer spending, capital investment and inventory investment. This should make for a nice first half slowdown. Almost everyone is predicting a 2nd half pickup. If that is placed in doubt, we will have another down leg in every area of the market. That would be a great buying opportunity. I'm keeping my ear to the ground.

would you venture to give a specific "range" of the low ?

i am not attempting to "put you on the spot", however i am trying to form a profile of what sort of "low" people are expecting. i happen to agree with you in two counts:

1. the slow down will be more severe than what the majority think

2. we have not seen the low in the markets.

i can not quantify the severity of the slow down, but my estimate of the low of the market could be around: 1,900 on the NDX (the low of 1999). this is a mere estimate using voodoo dolls of NASDAQ market makers -gg-

if we do reach that level, i believe we could be trading sideways in a range between 1900 and 2400 (which is the October low in 1999 and where we started in our run to 4780 plus the high of march 2000). this, until economic growth can be resumed, this time with more realistic expectations.

again, the intent is merely form an image of possible expectations.
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