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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.70

+2.2%

Jan 27 3:59 PM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (46333)	1/8/2001 11:33:19 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Good point Gary about "opinion". Back to the original question because it is a good one. Central. How many shares do we think CSCO will have 10 years from now, and what will the market price per share be then, and why? Start with shares. We start with 7.4 B, issue 250M per year in stock options vesting over 4 years. Must take into account the 900 M outstanding options granted & unexercised, of which 80% will vest and be exercised over the next 10 years (assuming the price goes up at all, which we are hypothesizing anyhow). Let's assume cash purchase from here on in - either that or buyback of shares issued into acquisitions. That gives us 7.4 + (0.72) + ((0.25 x 10) - 3/4(250) - 1/2(250) - 1/4(250)) fully diluted, discounting unvested options. = 10.3 B shares. Round to 10B to be nice. $100 price target makes CSCO a 1 T$ market cap. $100 is annual return of 12% from here. How reasonable is this scenario? John.

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