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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.730.0%11:04 AM EST
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To: The Phoenix who wrote (46341)1/8/2001 1:38:25 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
Hi Gary - I don't buy it that you have no opinion. Buy, Sell, Hold, or Avoid (derivatives inclusive). No other alternative.

Since you are active in the market, by definition you have chosen one of these decisions. Or you are acting randomly.

You certainly post as though you have an opinion ;)

Strangely enough, I was just trying to put together a long term scenario consistent with CSCO being a good investment.

If you want we can construct any number of models where CSCO is a bad investment at these levels. But that's counter productive. Or so I thought <g>

For my model to be broken as you describe, CSCO must be a bad investment.

For example, from $30 to $70 is less than 9% annual return over 9 years, which in equities is terrible. So if you expect a $70 option to be worthless, well then you surely wouldn't be a buyer of CSCO at $30!

As to your guess the number of options underwater, turns out that 50% (dollar weighted) would be under water at $23. 50% of vested options go underwater at $9 - at least as of last details the company published. Water level will be higher due to new grants since Jul 29 and any exercise since then. Offset to unknown amount due to option obligations assumed from acquired companies.

John.
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