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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Moominoid who wrote (49924)	1/8/2001 7:48:43 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) of 94695

David, This was my original post sans some statements relating to the then current period when I wrote it originally: ---------------------------------------------------- The SCY ratio (SCYR) compares the yield (Y) of being in stocks (S) with being in cash (C). I use the sum of the dividends and earnings on the S&P500 against the 13 week coupon interest rate on Treasuries. The original author, I believe, thought that the buy/sell point was rigorous with 1.21 being the fulcrum, as they say. The indicator went out of favor since you would have been OUT of the market for the past 6,000 or so DOW points! HOWEVER, using Eistein's theory of relativity (just kidding), I adopted a RELATIVE view of the indicator, now at .66! Danger city lies when the ratio is making new lows... as it was doing all throughout 2000. I have been in cash, except for pin money in cheap options now and again, since July of last year and proud of it! In no time in history have markets been in such dangerous territories, IMHO and all other caveats! To me the question is WHEN and not IF we will have a mega crash that will NOT recover any time soon. BWDIK??? <happy trading...gggggggg> ---------------------------------------------------- I left in the mega crash info because if the lems are running, it may be too late to avoid it. Bill

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