Hey guys, just keep in mind that this is a definite Venture Capital play and not one to bet the farm on!!! KEEP DIVERSIFIED!!! I too like Oral Tolerance, but it seems that proving it is not as easy as one might think.
I get the 7-15 year figure as that is the typical developmental time frame for taking a pre-preclinical molecular discovery through the research necessary to start pre-clinical trials, then clinical trials, then FDA submission process and then getting a drug actually into the market and making money. Keep in mind that AIMMs part is coming up with an rDNA version to provide the NIH to use in the clinicals. This says nothing about AIMM getting rights to the current non-rDNA version (although they might, there just isn't enough detail here to tell). There are a few instances in extreme cases where a drug can get through in a shorter time frame, but they are few and far between, and there are many instances where they take a lot longer. Keep in mind that the article says that AIMM will be trying to develop an rDNA version, this takes time and a full blown restart at pre-clinicals. The fact that the NIH has this original molecule in some clinicals (phase unstated) could reduce the time frame somewhat, but there seems to be some concern about the cost of the current product. Also, this is not a drug for a condition with no current treatment, or one which is fatal, which are ones which garner a faster and easier process (more slack) with the FDA. This is a treatment for a condition with an existing effective treatment, that MIGHT not be as good as this new drug due to reduced side-effects and maybe it is more efficacious, but the data has not been produced to prove this yet. However these kinds of conditions will be looked at with a more stringent scrutiny by the FDA than a fatal disease with no current treatment. This is all still a big far off maybe! If you want to buy on this kind of speculation, go for it. I certainly won't. I've been in the biotech business too long to feel a need to do so as there are too many other great nearer term more defined deals out there. However, it is investors like yourselves who help biotechnology to survive and grow, so more power to you, I hope you do quite well.
Rman |
