| Though I agree that NTAP is at least as vulnerable as any high PE tech stock, and also that you will see numerous examples of similar formations on other charts in the sector (and related sectors - even, according to some, the whole composite), I think it's worth keeping in mind that the descending triangle, prior to breakdown, is a highly unreliable formation: Bulkowski gives it a 45% failure rate that he calls "shameful." That's not much better than a coin flip. If, however, you wait for the breakdown, then reliability is said to go up tremendously (failure rate reduces to 4%). If you look at NTAP's own chart, I think you may make out a number of actual or potential descending triangles (ones about as well formed as the current one, IMO) that, indeed, resolved dramatically to the upside. |
