| Condor.. I think we will see a cut for reasons that everyone including some of us expected that oil inventories situation will lead us to disaster in the winter, we had oneo f the nastiest winters in 45 years hidtory and the inventory acutally build up, that is what is worrying the OPEC with spring on cards we have a lead time of 2 months, the oil prices without production cut may actually fall further and if they break 18$ cheating amongst the mebers become rampant, Iran, Iraq Venezulans, they are amongst the big underhand dealers, they have projected their budgets at aorund 14-15$, below this it hurts them and naturally once cheating starts the price goes in tail spin and what Saudis are worried about is that for their budgetry requirements they need to sell more at lower price to keep the social commotion in order.. But below 11$ they need to open the taps the 'doomsday' of the Economist, I thiunk this is more poltical than actual event that may be sustainable, cartels can produce short term movements but like .coms they are bound to hit the rock, the oil price finally would be what the speed global or US GDP would grow ( being the biggest user of oil). These ...holes on one hand predict a slow down to 1% on the other look at higher prices killing them arkets, slow GDp growth will lower commodity prices and the commodity inlfation that will lead to lowering interest rates, for me one of the situation would prevail, it is not possible to argue higher prices of oil and lower GDP, I see that oil states have a point as they try to brace for harsher times ahead where we may not see 7% growth of the US economy and summer may drive the demand lower..I would cut and that is without any political alignment, just good marketing, but oil goes down thatyis my prediction at 15$ by the end of the year.. |
