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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.43

-0.7%

Jan 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (46435)	1/9/2001 10:57:29 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Yes, I'm sitting. Floored. LOL we agree. Like Ed & bambs being playfully respectful. I think it means we won't be able to make sense out of the market for a while! Up followed by down for no reason. A tug of war at an inflection point. Remains to be seen. I personally think that there will be a rally of some kind, as a prelude to a flight of capital from the markets towards the end of March. If the markets are unstable at that point, then I wouldn't want to be sitting on exposed long positions. Same time, the potential losses from exposed short positions in this market scare the willies out of me. Why do I project a flight of capital? Because credit is a bit tight right now and there's a nice unopened year end present waiting under the tree this year for J6P. In the form of capital gains distributions. Surprise! Not negative. In 2000, a great deal of money went to money heaven, yes. But a great deal of money went into smart people's pockets too. Depending on accounting practices, funds may show loss on NAV but still report cap gains distribution. Aaah the subtelties of the IRS. Imagine poor joe who has to pay taxes on an investment that's worth less than he bought it for? Not a happy clam, I assure you. Firstly, he's going to have to find that money - and it won't be at the expense of his six pack or paid on his visa card. Secondly, he's going to be more than a bit ticked with his fund manager. Makes for an interesting dynamic to be sure. Maybe - pure pie-in-the-sky speculation - this is what AG sees that we don't see. Not something obvious on the immediate horizon, but something that needs to be prepared for several months in advance. Or maybe I am full of it. Wouldn't be the first time. John.

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