I guess what I was getting at in that long, boring post was that all things remaining equal, there is an important missing piece to the Nasdaq puzzle.
In 98 there was a 22% nasdaq decline after the first cut.
We have not seen anywhere near that percentage in losses for the NAZ yet (post rate cut).
My problem with the prospects for the market sustaining a rally are based in part on the current investor sentiment. It's not bearish or sour enough for the market to mark a bottom or a turning point. So to that end, I don't think we have bottomed in the NAZ. We are creatures of habit....how many times have you heard that? <g> Bearing that in mind, I think a relative repeat of the market during the easing cycle in 1998 would be more conducive to a longer-term rally today.
I don't think it's going to equate to a number of down days but rather a percentage decline closer to that of Oct98, to mark a real bottom.
Alas, the environment is quite different, and the Fed is in its current easing cycle for different reasons than in 98. So with that in mind, I sincerely hope that the events unfold differently, and the market can successfully claw its way back up. No matter how you slice it, it's going to be a rough-n-tough road to recovery.
-B |
