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Technology Stocks : i2 Technologies
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To: Wizard who wrote (1746)1/9/2001 12:41:48 PM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) of 2339
 
To Wiz and the thread:

What do you think of this ANALysis from Thill at CSFB?

i2 Technologies - Brent Thill
Preannounces Better than Expected Q4; Seq License Growth Slows

· ITWO announced after the close yesterday they would exceed Q4 street expectations. But seq license growth rates were cut in half vs the last two quarters. We believe ITWO pushed out revenue into Q1 to provide shelter for a potential IT slowdown.

He goes on to make his case for his prior negative comments about license growth slowing. Perhaps if he actually warranted employment as a securities analyst, he would have looked at the purchase accounting on Aspect and realized that most of the ARTIFICIALLY HIGH sequential license growth from the prior two quarters came from the Aspect purchase.

This is the kind of crap that analysts should be fired for. (Although my recent favorite remains Blodget's attempt to use options exercise proceeds as part of yahoo's cash flow.)

In this market I still see ITWO as expensive, but worth owning with a long term horizon. It looks like downside is in the upper 20's with a solid long term upside. I just wish we could get the Ariba/ITWO divorce over with.

I hope ITWO management can effectively communicate the flaws in this so called analysis. I even heard Shilakes at Merill jumped to this conclusion too.

Good Grief!

TD
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