Here's a mutual fund manager in the states commenting on Ballard recently
We sold BLDP for quite a different reason. I've become convinced by the Huber Mills Power Report that fuel cells aren't going to make it as a mainstream transportation power source. The reason is simple, when you think about it. If you replace the IC engine with a fuel cell, you also have to replace almost literally everything else in the car that is now run by gears, drive belts and chains, drive shafts and so forth. This is a major re-engineering feat, and virtually the entire car has to be redesigned from scratch.
On the other hand, if you keep the IC engine, you can begin to gradually replace all the systems that are mechanically driven by electric motors. You isolate the engine, have one huge electrical wire run from the engine to the alternator/generator, and have a web of small wires run from there to hundreds of large to tiny electric motors running everything else in the car. Use electric motors for the valves instead of a camshaft, dramatically increasing the efficiency of the motor, which self tunes for maximum efficiency. Run each wheel with its own separate motor and get rid of the transmission, drive shaft and axles, saving a huge amount of weight. Use electric motors for the brakes, the oil and water pumps, everything. This makes the car so much lighter and more efficient, you can cut the engine size in half, saving even more weight, and still have enough acceleration to jerk your head back.
What's behind this revolution (which has already begun, by the way) is that electrical energy is enormously more efficient at transmitting power than are mechanical devices. You can run more power through a wire much smaller than just the car's drive shaft, than that generated by all four jet engines on a Boeing 757! That's how much is lost in the mechanical linkages. What had to first be done to accomplish all this is to redesign the car's electrical system to carry this kind of current, which has now been done. We have moved from original systems with no electrical system, to a 6 volt system, to a 12V system, to a 14V system. We are now moving to a 42V system, which should enable us to do all the things I've described above.
We are beginning to drastically cut the weight of automobiles, reduce their price, make them more powerful and vastly more efficient, and dramatically reduce pollution, maybe by as much as 90%. Expect the IC engine to be around for a long time.
The above is from
Diary of a Fund Manager
Robert Loest, Ph.D., CFA
Portfolio Manager
He is with
Millennium Fund is a Growth & Income fund with a multi-cap orientation, and uses a "Barbell"
investment strategy. The volatility of the disruptive technology portion on one end of the barbell is controlled by using lower
volatility, higher dividend companies (REITs, utilities, financials, etc.) at the other end of the barbell. |
