>>I guess bottoms-- at least this one -- will take a good, long while.<< Or one more rate cut.
The Naz was a momentum market, both up and down. You don't turn that around overnight. In fact, this is probably a good sign; we're not going straight up a la May and June. This is more in line with how bear markets bottom, beginning with a period of accumulation.
Don't know if I agree with comments that there's significantly lower lows coming further down the road. There is only one historical precedent for that occurring after the Fed cut rates, 1929-1932, and the Fed could have avoided that by following up sooner with more rate cuts. A few years, like '81, '87 and '89, the market did struggle for a while before turning up after the Fed cut. The Fed wasn't really committed to easing in '81, though, not until 1982. '87 was flat for some time after the Fed cut. '89 traded lower ultimately, but only during the '90 recession and further rate hikes, and there was a nice rally immediately after the '89 cuts. Given that this was a bubble bursting, similar to '87, makes the flat picture a possibility for a while. |
