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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.480-0.2%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Nils Mork-Ulnes who started this subject1/9/2001 4:18:30 PM
From: Ruffian   of 34857
 
Nokia

Here's an excellent post from Explorer_at_large regarding NOK. Although it's a bit dated
(1999), it makes some important points regarding NOK (especially given today's hoopla)

I fail to understand the relevance of Nokia's historical earnings vis-a-vis the current situation.
Considering that Nokia's market capitalization is $100 billion and Qualcomm's is $17 billion,
one would presume that the old Noker is making a few dollars more than Qualcomm at
present. The issue is the future and Nokia's dependence on a legacy air interface. At least
Ericsson figured out that it was screwed and cut a deal with Qualcomm. What do you suspect
will happen to Nokia's infrastructure business as the world migrates to 3G? Past is not
prologue. Fifteen years ago, IBM and Digital Equipment were the two strongest, and most
profitable, computer companies in America. IBM went to the wall before Gerstner fixed it; DEC
overstayed in mini-computer land and is now part of Compaq. Nokia could face DEC's fate if it
doesn't get busy. Given QCOM's broad licensing of CDMA, and egalitarian distribution of
ASIC's, it will prove far more difficult for Nokia to sustain handset momemtum in a
CDMA-centric world than it was in its quasi-monopolistic TDMA-based GSM universe.
Carefully laid IPR barriers kept the Japanese and Koreans out of a meaningful presence in
GSM, this will NOT be the case with CDMA....your arrogant protestations to the contrary.

You also neglected to respond to comments regarding the difference between GSM network
protocols and GSM's TDMA air interface. Your dogmatic repetition that GSM is 'bigger than
CDMA' demonstrates ignorance of the topic. It didn't matter to Microsoft that Compaq became
a bigger PC company than IBM; it didn't matter to Microsoft that Dell became bigger than
Compaq. Microsoft got paid on every box, regardless of the manufacturer. Qualcomm is in the
same royalty position vis-a-vis 2G CDMA and 3G CDMA; and GSM's next generation air
interface is based on CDMA. I will continue this discussion with you only if you offer something
beyond an ostrich-like repetition of prior dogma. I am not optimistic.

From RB..........
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