Vector1,
I have seen shorters take long time horizons with a biotech or two. I managed to ride CLPA during its "subset-analysis will work" bubble phase. On the other side, for a good year and a half, was Auric. Not a consistently charming guy, Auric, and not known for shorting biotech much himself. But a good shorter, who was in it for the long haul. I guess for an event, as CLPA's market potential was large, but fuzzy. Thus hard to value. In any case, you likely know what happened to CLPA. I owe Miljenko a beer for a heads up on the likely non-approval.
Speaking of Miljenko, shorting is time intensive because you're doing it wrong. Methodology here is simple and obvious: when an FDA committee is about to approve/disapprove a drug, ask Miljenko for the odds and act accordingly. <g> Seems like Miljenko made a prescient short call on a galloping biotech earlier this year. Kudos on your recent record, Miljenko, if you're out there.
CELG. Well, looks like it could be in this range for a while, but I don't follow the stock as closely as you and others do. Again, MZ's recent comments seem ominous to me.
CRA: inked some deals recently. Rick recently characterized their business model as "build it and they will come." Apparently a couple of players have walked onto the diamond. Question is, will the rest of the team come, too? Don't think there will be much money left on the table by waiting and seeing, but don't see much more downside for a while except due to "market conditions". My two tarnished cents.
Cheers, Tuck |
