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Who Can Take Cisco's Pain?
By James J. Cramer
1/10/01 2:11 PM ET
Isn't Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards) the
microcosm? Isn't it the dichotomy that we worry about, with
the near term not looking so hot and John Chambers
asking us to look through the valley? NO hedge fund will
look through that valley. Not one. But will the mutual funds? I
think not, and therefore you get a stock that is, as I put it earlier, a battleground where
people with long-term outlooks hang on and take pain while the short-termers bolt and
move on to the next new thing.
I bet Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news - boards) will be the same. I bet they say that the near
term is not so hot. Coming on the heels of Cisco, that will lead to more skepticism. (In
fact, I think it will be viewed as Pollyanna-like if Yahoo! does anything else.) So people
shift their sights to other stocks that have more positive things to say. Again, if you think it
is going to be rough for Cisco, you can't expect to be able to stay in the PMC Sierras
(PMCS:Nasdaq - news - boards) and the Xilinx's (XLNX:Nasdaq - news - boards). They
are, in the end, suppliers to the Ciscos, and that's not safe either.
Oh, and by the way, if the outlook is not so hot for Cisco, don't be thinking that it is hot for
Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news - boards) and
Nortel (NT:NYSE - news - boards). That's not how it works. They are all seeing the same
thing. If you can handle the punishment that Cisco is meting out than you can stay long
those others.
I wouldn't. |
