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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Eric L who wrote (37682)	1/10/2001 2:50:37 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Eric, I'm not trying to pick a fight here, but what hard core numbers can we expect from 3G once the build out happens? I'm just not convinced everyone is going to run out and buy a new phone or device to get the phat connection. Seeing that NOK is already showing saturation in the handset market, I'm wondering if the rollout and ramp in volumes isn't going to be MUCH MUCH slower than most anals have down in their models. I don't doubt that it will be the "thing"....but like other products or standards that get hyped up I'm skeptical of the speed at which the large volumes show up. For instance, DSL was the thing last year - look what happened to those players stocks the last 9M. Before that it was cable modems, and before that it was DVD. All of these took much much longer to ramp than the proponents had projected. DVD for example was suppose to be hot for the last 2+ years...yet it really didn't ramp till this Christmas. Today we have CSCO stepping back from home networking saying the rollout will be much further out etc, etc, etc. Everyone seems to be so "high" on 3G that even if it just misses numbers by a little bit or rolls out 6-12M slower, how will the markets treat QCOM stock holders? My gut is telling me this will likely be the case. This Chambers dude from "Crisco" only a few weeks ago was saying things were fine, yet today he finally admits capx spending makes it difficult for him to measure growth going forward. This is what I fear may happen to the 3G sector as well, more economic and biz cycle related but still it could cramp the 3G camp in a large way for the short run, IMO. If this does happen my guess is you could see QCOM fall back below the 50's (maybe even the 20-30 level) while we wait for volumes to ramp. Nobody thought MSFT could hit the 40's or CSCO the 30's but they have. Your thoughts appreciated, FredE - Devils Advocate<GGG>

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