Very impressive, Pars full 860 subjects phase III, with 70 centers, first 40 in Europe then 30 in the US.
At 40 a month they should do it in 21 month, add the 30 a month in the US then it should be in 11 month, and this is with one patient a month recruited.
I think that to expect 3 subjects recruited a month per center is reasonable.
It should take then it should take 6 to 8 months to complete recruitment and another 6 months for follow up, after last group recruited, roughly 18 months to complete at the earliest.
Then the product should be in the market in 2004.
I will wait with my current shares, maybe acquire more along the next 3 years.
My baseline shares are just in case if a big pharma jumps in in the next months.
A big pharma must provide some $20 to $30 millions to get 60% of the revenues. If none goes in before completion and completion of phase III is succesful big pharma will have to pay $100 millions for 50% of the rights.
Even better, with this type of drug distribution is to institutions, not to presciption pharmacies, Pharmos could go fully alone.
Dream on! |
