JAN 10 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - lower midrange
SPX - midrange
OEX - midrange
NAZ - midrange
NDX - upper midrange
VIX - 30.19, lower midrange(inverse to market)
CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .57
TRIN - .95, 1st day under 1.00 after 7 days in a row above 1.00
Per my short-term technicals the overall market is in the midrange, and if the market continues straight up I would get CLASS 1 SELL signals in 2-3 days.
Market internals continue to improve on the NAZ, and the NEW HIGHs slightly exceeded the NEW LOWs. For now the market internals are moving in a positive manner, supporting the belief of further upside. THat doesnt mean that the NAZ goes straight up either.
As mentioned in the last INDEX UPDATE, there are hints that this specific short-term rally may have limits. Our DIVERGENCE INDICATOR is not up-dated until later, but my guess is that the NAZ/NDX is approaching the upper limits of the range. I attempted to close some of my UOPIX positions in my personal account, but unfortunately the system didnt take it on time.
The MAX-PAIN on both the QQQ's and OEX's may also limit the short-term upside. The QQQ MAX-PAIN is at 60 and the QQQ close today right at the MAX-PAIN LEVEL(60 3/16). The OEX MAX-PAIN is at 690 and the OEX closed at 684.78. I do not use the MAX-PAIN to the exact point, but do use it with a buffer. For the OEX MAX-PAIN I use a buffer of +/- 20-25 points, and for the QQQ's I use a buffer of about +/-5 points. 5 points on the QQQ's is equal to about 200 NDX points. So what I am now suspecting is that the NDX may now just oscillate until option expiration within the buffer of he QQQ's, So per this MAX-PAIN BUFFER for the QQQ, the upside is around 2600 on the NDX, if it gets that high, and the downside around 2200, if it gets that low.
So the MAX-PAIN issue is supporting the hints coming from our DIVERGENCE INDICATOR.
The VALUE LINE INDEX(VLE) did set a HIGHER HIGH today. Just another positive for the overall market.
So for the shorter-term, the upside could be limited as mentioned above, but for the longer/mid-term it appears that there is more upside, of course with oscillations. |
