Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: accountclosed who wrote (56525)	1/10/2001 7:19:36 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) of 436258

worth is relative, don't get me wrong -- currencies, hard assets, paper claims on productive assets, etc. However, I think many of the large cap techs are still significantly overpriced in term of price to earnings going forward, i.e. I think earnings projections are very optimistic, even now My own view is that the DCF model is the way to value stocks -- this mania (yes, I still call it a mania) exists on a completely different plane -- the only returns given to shareholders by these big cap techs have been in the way of capital gains brought about by share buy-backs -- it is an unsustainable model based on a silly measure: EPS Until such a time as folks start using historical norms again I have a hard time regarding large cap stocks as investments -- nothing wrong with a trade here and there or if that is the entire focus of ones activities -- that's ok by me too -- what I thought was "clownish" was 2 ideas 1) Discounting a significant slowdown and 2) Buying big cap tech names as longer term investments Certainly, that's just my own opinion -- I respect Bill for speaking his mind -- he thinks for himself -- I just respectfully disagree on the near term prospects for the economy and whether or not big tech is attractive for the long haul at these prices I guess some would say this about some of the other chief economists/strategists, but I think the lot of them are simply whores -- salesmen and little more My observations were regarding views expressed in that link only. In regards to broader ideas you mention -- I'm in no way wedded to some always ultra-bearish POV. I don't desire economic hardship or TL & EV -- just appears to inevitable to me at this point ... Sentiment-wise I would even disagree on whether this is a good risk-adjusted trade -- to buy big cap tech now -- there's been no real washout -- just a slow grind down. Doesn't have to happen that way -- big washout day -- but it's human nature for folks to panic.

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