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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: OpusX who wrote (6010)1/10/2001 8:40:59 PM
From: Kapusta Kid  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
I still track it, although I often wonder why. VIX certainly pinpointed the Labor Day top perfectly (i.e., a 5-day Mave of the VIX close vs. the S&P). The moving average dropped to @19, indicative of tons of complacency. Back in April and May, the MA made a double top; the second top preceded the beginning of the rally by a couple of weeks. But on 12/27/00, the MA surpassed both those peaks (and has since declined).

Schaeffer may be correct, but I've noticed some strangeness lately. E.g., the ARMS Index has reached severely overbought levels lately. This is not unusual in a strongly trending down market. What is unusual is that on January 3, the big up day, the NYSE ARMS reading was 1.17, which is indicative of pretty strong selling. This was on a day in which the S&P rose 64 points! One of the biggest up moves in history and there was stealth selling.

Anyone remember Joe Granville? One of the things he said (before he lost his mind and started predicting earthquakes and stuff) was that at major tops and bottoms, there's always a HOOK. A HOOK is one of those factors that everyone watches. But this time, THE HOOK doesn't act normally and it fools the majority. If anyone knows what THE HOOK is this time, please PM me.
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