yes...i called him by his nick name...his main goal in life is waiting for, and profiting from the BK...sort of like Luc almost. -g-
thanks for the kind words...btw, re. a/d line break-out over recent reaction highs, it is noteworthy that this a/d line break-out was not confirmed by a price break-out in the NYA or the Dow...that is in my book a BEARISH non-confirmation, just like a lower low in the a/d line unconfirmed by a higher low in NYA and Dow is a bullish non-confirmation, and not a sign that a bearish trend will persist. however the bearish non-confirmation is a rare event...normally it's price making a new high, while a/d does not.
the same goes of course for new highs/new lows. we have recently had new highs almost pushing 400...a feat not seen since April '98. BUT this new reaction high in the NH/NL differential was unconfirmed by a new price high in the NYA.
the NAZ is difficult to gauge using a/d or NH/NL non-confirmations, as its a/d line is in perpetual collapse. i've decided it's meaningless in this case, although it was joined by a price collapse, something that hasn't happened on the NYSE yet.
while i'm on the topic of non-confirmations, the Dow sports a curious bullish non-confirmation of a/d volume and price. curious because it's not replicated on the NYA...so it's a bit too early to tell if it's meaningful. i'm actually inclined to think in this case that selling on high volume takes place, and buying on light volume then 'rights' prices, a variation on the high TICK+high TRIN theme essentially.
also, for the sake of completeness it needs to be mentioned that the e-wavers do not agree on the Dow count one bit. some see the entire consolidation that began with the '99 high, the often talked about 'diamond formation' as primary wave 4 , to be followed by primary wave 5 UP. the difference between that and the view i'm currently espousing is that my primary 4 is much larger, and not yet complete. however, a run to new highs would seal the debate.
and then again, it likely WOULDN'T seal it entirely...because bullish sentiment is too high...and would get even more extreme on a run to new highs. it practically precludes such a run as it were. |
