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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (49948)1/10/2001 11:44:54 PM
From: Gary105  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Bill, possibility that current strengthening is for real. While I looked for slowdown to wipe out market excesses and return to fair valuation, Wall Streets hypesters may result in the bubble continuing, only to a lesser degree. My guess is that we are currently in the slowest phase of the economy (Q1 and Q2 of this year - maybe we are even in a recession) and that growth will resume at slower pace in 2nd half of year. I've been buying beaten down stocks with reasonable p/es in a variety of sectors ranging from auto parts to telecoms. Occasional shorting of high fliers although to a lesser extent lately. Strategy is producing decent returns so far. We may now have wall of worry (good for stocks). Things to still be concerned with - earnings warnings, derivatives collapse. On positive side, if we do see pickup in second half, we may see upward revisions in second half of year (positive preannouncements) from expectations that were lowered in first half of year. Comments welcome.
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