Gottfried - first, we must consider the possibility that it's Ms. Market. In fact, in light of the breathtakingly fast mood swings.... uh, better not go there.
Your question is better suited for your priest/pastor/rabbi/ayatollah/atheist-new-age-houseband-wailing wall than a fellow investor. For myself, the lesson of last year could not have been clearer: while SI can be fun and interesting, it really provides little more than somewhat better ‘insight’ into what just happened. Most investors, no matter how compelling the claims to the contrary, DO fall in love with their stocks (and the more letters after their name, the worse the condition...I should know) and they DO feel whatever is happening NOW can be explained rationally and therefore will continue. That latter, momentum psychology, is the basis for why I believe the idea behind the ‘Blood in the streets’ thread is absolutely on the mark, in theory, and absolutely impossible for 99% of investors to practice (see my posts, appearing on that thread in early December, ad nauseum).
In any event, I do recall that in July of last year, in the period bracketing Klic’s stellar q3 earnings announcement, the stock dropped ~30% on increased volume. Obviously, this was not an amorphous ‘Mr. Market’ but savvy investors who saw behind the curtain. The stock has only begun to recover of late. Thus the evidence for the downturn existed in July; SI participants, yours truly included, convinced that the market and the analysts were idiotic and wrong, consciously chose to ignore the signs.
We were too blind to see; exchanging opinions on SI only exacerbated our wrongheaded perceptions.
[Please appreciate the countless calories expended avoiding the use of the 'H' and the 'C' words.] |
