A quick run through few stocks that issued warnings, NOK, Yhoo and MOT..
One thing is sure that about all these companies they are building basis for dramatically reduced earnings going forward..and this inevitasbly creates a room for upside..as lot of positive surprises kick in.. I continus to se this as an opportunity and Fed rate cuts will help the old economy stocks will lose lustre and new economy will gain momentum but as I have said and highlighted yesterday we need to watch carefully, 1328 and 3028 are important..on SPX and Comp..
NOK.. From last year 405 m hand set market NOK had a SHARE of 31.6% of 128 m, going forwardin 2001 China is opening up the CDMA third generation and 4th generation telephones are in demand the market is estimated at 190 m I expect NOK share to be 35% of the total global market, it iwll increase whereas MOT and ERICY may lose market share. The new market would be 185 m to 190 m in 2001..I assume that 95 explosion of NOK to present corrective level we may now see a bottom with 2-3$ and an explosive rise from that level.
Yhoo.. I highlighted that YHoo may set the tone for the nascent recovery of the IIX, after the fall of .com ad revenue I was surprise to see Yhoo made numbers, moreso the forward guidance is very conservative, from a rev basis of 1.5 bn we have been told that revs would drop to 1.3bn that is far below the worst case scenerio. The earnings are now revised to 33-44 cents from 55 cnts. I see Yhoo at 21-22$ from the low I have a position at 31 and change and I will aggresively add at htose levels in some out of moeny calls. I have stock and with some 30 calls six months out I would be hopefully ,alright.The future guidance is very very conservative, the good thing about Yhoo is that .coms demise in block did not have the impact that market was expecting, the fortune 500 base customers are on the up and that is a good sign, the explosion caused by .coms have made the final impact, moreover I like that one time charge of 190 m $ in investments. Yhoo a good stock at 21 and 23 anyhwere that level.
MOT.. The revenuse were trimmed down from 11 to 9 and they came out at 10 some, the cost structure is big, they are working on it, I was in Schaumberg for a day and have learnt the extraordinary mad drive of MOT to cut cost and sigma 6 training, they are now looking at sigma 7, productivity would be good and revenues will grow as cost are controlled, NOK faces a formidable challenge from MOT, the stock will make an attempt to hit 24-25$.. I believe that SOX close at 650 was good and if we can see a break above 650 today we are in a new territory. |
