John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Stoctrash who wrote (3152)	1/11/2001 2:18:24 PM
From: John Pitera	of 33421

Hi Fred, I was just thinking about you -g- Yes, lower rates and the idea that their are more Fed Fund cuts to come are certainly helping the credit markets, of which muni's are a part of. You know a few of those Nuveen funds must have some significant exposure to the CA. utilities and so those are the ones to be possibly staying away from. Know what you are buying right -g- Gold is getting trashed, crude is rebounding quite a bit the past week or so from 26 to 30. ( note a few momentum divergences) geocities.com The 30 year bond is breaking down out of it's uptrend in price on the daily charts, and the other note futures are looking toppy at the moment as well. Here's a shorter term long bond futures chart geocities.com And a 1 year March TBOND chart. geocities.com we could go back to the more major trendline at 101 16 - 102 the 101 '16 area is also horizontal support. here is some commentary that makes a lot of sense to me, as I have been talking about the NASD completing a "W" type bottom on the daily chart for a few days. Nasdaq to complete base and 2's may break a 6-week falling yield trend : Nasdaq is up another 2.83% on the day and looks set to break the key 2,644 3-week high - so completing a double base from the Jan 03 and 08 lows targeting a measured move to the 2,900/90 area. The 3 and 8 day moving averages are positive, the 14 day RSI is pointing higher and the MACD is in buy mode. Weekly indicators have yet to revert positive but a close above 2,700 by Friday will do the trick. This has ominous implications for the 2-year which has already bounced from its 4.56% Jan 8 lows to 4.77% today. Trend resistance from the late Nov 5.86% highs is met at 4.87% and is falling at 3 bps per day. With the 3-day average about to cross up through the 8-day average for the first time since late November an upside correction towards the 5.05% could well be underway. I'll be watching to see if we get a cross over of the very influential 5&21 day exponential Moving averages occur. There is major institutional and hedge fund money that rotates in and out of equities as a percentage of their asset allocation models when this occurs

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