re: Simon Says
Note Number 11.
Any comments on Mr. Buckingham's prognostications?
<< I know it's a mistake to read this thread on a bad day... yet it's morbidly addictive. >>
Sorta like a rerun of "Through a Glass Darkly"?
>> Predictions for the Mobile Market in 2001
Simon Buckingham
Mobile Lifestreams
mobileyearly.com
2001 will be a key year for wireless and the industry continues in its transformation from voice centric to non-voice centric continues apace.
Some massively important technologies and services will arrive for the first time in 2001, the key trends being 3G/ WCDMA (Wideband CMDA) arrives, Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) arrives in trial format, the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) dies out, Java/ MExE proceeds in I-mode, the Nokia 9210 Communicator and many other devices as the Sun shines and the Enhanced Messaging Service (EMS) and Magic4 smart messaging formats arrive.
2001 will also be a year of consolidation and building for the future as future building blocks such as mobile location, mobile commerce, 3G and the like are standardized and begin to be deployed in networks and handsets, paving the way for hyper-growth in 2002.
Specifically in 2001, Mobile Lifestreams is predicting that:
1. Cisco Systems will acquire Openwave Systems (the new name for Software.com/ Phone.com). Mobile Lifestreams is predicting that Cisco Systems will acquire Openwave Systems during 2001. Lets look at the reasons why such a deal would appear to be on the cards:
- Cisco Systems owned just under 10% of Software.com prior to the merger with Phone.com
- The new CEO of the combined Openwave Systems organization was a senior Cisco Systems executive who sat on the Software.Com board
- That executive seems to have left Cisco amicably- given the close pre-existing relations between Cisco and Software.com this is hardly surprising
- Cisco Systems has itself (like Phone.com but in much more style) been moving up the value chain itself as it moves beyond routers towards acquisitions such as Amteva Systems, an IP unified messaging vendor which now competes with the new Phone.com/ Software.com
- The master of making and integrating acquisitions, Cisco Systems has publicly stated its intention to complete several more acquisitions in the coming months
- Cisco has been growing at such a rapid rate, that an acquisition of a company with the mass that the combined Openwave Systems brings would represent a meaningful transaction. The larger a company gets, the larger its acquisitions need to be to make an impact
- Cisco has been supplying the telecommunications industry with IP infrastructure and the combined customer list of Software.com and Phone.com would bring a lot of accounts in the telecoms space ripe for upselling (or downselling- depending upon your point of view)
- The combined Openwave Systems organization will still find substantial challenges in selling to mobile network operators- Phone.com's technology is not great and Software.com's wireless products have not even been deployed. Given the ever impatient needs of the stock market, the companies are pressurized to keeping acquiring scale to deflect attention from poor organic growth. This is a game that Phone.com knows very well- as its acquisition of APiON to shore up its WAP Gateway market share proved.
- Expect to see this transaction take place, and remember, you heard about if first from Mobile Lifestreams!
2. More than 50 WAP Forum members will be acquired or will go out of business as content providers and WAP portal providers are unable to make revenues and unable to raise finance.
3. SMS traffic volumes will double from 20 billion per month to 40 billion SMS per month from December 2000 to December 2001, fueled by the launch of two-way SMS by many TDMA network operators in North and South America.
4. The first 3G networks will go into "commercial trial" and commercial launch phases in Japan, the Isle of Man in the UK and other places.
5. Nokia will partner with a Korean or Japanese handset vendor in an attempt to maintain its handset leadership despite delays in its GPRS and 3G terminals.
6. Meanwhile Nokia will continue to transform its business from being a B2B supplier (to network operators) to additionally a B2C supplier (offering end user consumer services), fueled by implementation of its Club Nokia portal.
7. Sagem and Alcatel will merge as the global handset market converges.
8. Nokia will acquire Sonera to fuel its applications and consumer businesses. It will keep the portal and commerce divisions, and sell the network operator part of the business.
9. Palm will dominate the mobile operating system market- fueled by Palm itself, OmniSky and in particular Handspring.
10. Enhanced Messaging Service (EMS) will take the market by storm, becoming the must have youth item for Christmas 2001 and fueling an i-mode like wave of mobile entertainment services.
11. A format war will erupt in the post text pre multimedia mobile messaging mobile. Smart messaging backed by Nokia will compete against EMS backed by Ericsson will compete against Magic4 backed by several handset vendors. These competing standards will cause consumer confusion and inhibit service delivery, content creation and interoperability.
12. The Location Interoperability Forum will finally manage to introduce some standards into the mobile location market.
13. Mobile commerce will remain a real problem as different players in the value chain (banks, networks, terminal vendors) refuse to cede ground in the battle to own the customer data and relationships.
2001 will therefore be another monumental year <<
- Eric - |
