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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: PMG who wrote (57085)	1/11/2001 2:54:59 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) of 436258

what i'm saying is that the non-sentiment t/a data are looking bullish, and that is among other things responsible for creating excessive bullish sentiment. what that tells you is that the rally won't go too far. i have no idea what news items will ultimately be cited as the 'reasons' for a sell-off, but i do know the major cycles don't bottom until late Jan. we have a rare combination of the fastest deterioration in economic fundamentals since '74, coupled with everybody being bullish... that said, i expect the relative strength of the NAZ vs. the Dow to hold up for a while. in the realm of possibilities is of course also a cycle inversion - i.e. a rally into the late Jan. turning point. the probability is low imo, but has to be considered. in that case, the expected Feb.-April rally would turn into a sell-off instead.

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