Commentary of PRST's stock trend in the last 12 months....
with respect to its Press Releases.
Was Cabot Market Newsletter solely responsible for PRST strong
surge toward its high of 200? IMHO - not really.
In part, it is due to us - the "long-ster" of PRST.
There is only 14-15 million shares, and as each of us store it up
for posterity, the demand build up.
But that's not all. While Cabot Newsletters did bring attention
to PRST's bright future, so did PRST's own press releases.
Below is my humble attempt to link some of PRST key surges of their
stock price to their press releases.
PRST press releases can be viewed on
prnewswire.com
1) From June 1995 to end October 1995, PRST stock was fluctuating
between 40 and 60. Strangely, its Q2/95 result announcement on
July 21 95 of 42% increase in revenue over Q2/94 did not boost
the stock at all. The same goes for its Q3/95 result release on
Oct 16 95 of 72% increase in revenue over Q3/94. It did not boost
the stock much.
IMHO, I believe the general public awareness or confidence of PRST
was simply not there yet. The mass hystria was thus absent.
2) The jump from slightly under $50 to over $60 came in Nov 7 '95
press release "PRESSTEK BROADENS ITS MARKET REACH" where it states
that "The Company believes that the wide acceptance of the
Heidelberg Quickmaster DI, which had its first public showing
in Europe in May, and according to industry sources has sold
over 500 units, is a harbinger of the growing acceptance of its
imaging technology." The stock hung around 60 for several days.
3) On Nov 21 '95, PRST announced the signing of a contract with
Omni-Adast for the use of Presstek's computer-to-press direct
imaging PEARL(TM) based technology on a new large format ....
and sold on a worldwide basis through their distribution
channels...
This new highly productive, cost effective, high quality digital
press, incorporating Presstek's technology, is expected to be
available for delivery in the third quarter of 1996." (Hey, Q3/96
is just days away!). PRST's stock moved upward steadily over the
next few days to stabilise at 90 at end-Nov 95.
4) For the next 80 days or thereabout, it fluctuated around 80 and
100 until ....
5) Feb 16, PRST announced "the acquisition of 90% of Catalina
Coatings, Inc. for $8.4 million in cash.... Catalina is a leader
in the development and manufacture of organic and metal vacuum
deposition coating equipment ....will be applied to the manufacture
of Presstek's PEARL(R) based thermal printing plates to reduce
production costs and improve quality." The stock jumped from 90+
to near 130 before settling back to 100.
6) Again, strangely, the stock did not respond to their very favorable
Q4/95 full-year results announcement on Feb 27 96 - an 81% increase
in revenue over Q4/94 and 67% increase over full 1994.
7) Around Mar 19, the stock moved up to 110 on the announcement that
PRST "at its annual Top Management Conference, the National
Association of Printers and Lithographers (NAPL) presented its 1995
Industry Award to Presstek, Inc. for its patented digital imaging
technologies, its wide base of strategic alliances and
collaborative agreements, and its continuing involvement with
industry associations, all of which have made a significant
contribution to the advancement of the print industry."
8) On Apr 25, PRST announced their Q1/96 result. Ulike previous
quarter result announcements, this time, the stock moved, from
110+ to 140 on 116% revenue increase over Q1/95.
I would say public interest in PRST have been aroused.
Now, mass hysteria will set in on any piece of news....
9) The stock moved upward from 140 to 170 over the next 2 to
3 weeks (without any news). Public awareness and participation increases....
10)May 21, PRST announced "the signing of a purchase and sale
agreement for 60 acres of land in Hudson, N.H. The purchase,
subject to normal due diligence, is the result of the Company's
need for near-term manufacturing space and longer-term requirements
for the consolidation of its engineering and administration
facilities." - and with the help of public frenzy buying, the
stock moved toward a high of 200,
11)And the rest is HISTORY...or should I said, negative hypes,
mis-representation of information in published reports, etc.
The public panic (because they did not research and understand
the potential of PRST). They will sell at any price just to get
rid of their "bad buys". The price dives...Hmmm...Good Buys!
Most negative hypes had been addressed by PRST June 21 press released.
Somehow, Ms. J of WSJ is able to cause mass hysteria to the public
and cause PRST's market capitalisation to lost $500 million! (from
its intraday high of 87.5 to 55.0 in 2 days).
IMHO, the stock will go back soon to its $110-120 level, those days
before the invasion of the Publics, especially with their Q2/96
result announcement coming soon....
Cabot Newsletter (june 22) say "due out around July 21, could hit
$0.17 a share". PRST's press release say that Cabot "appear not to
have taken into consideration....its accounting for income taxes
with respect to income tax benefits arising from the exercise of
certain stock options." THe last tax adjustment for stock option
in Q1/96 was 0.04 (and it may be also for Q3/Q495?). So worst case
is 0.17-0.04=0.13 per share. Median could be around 0.14-0.15.
This look good in comparison to their adjusted Q1/96 of 0.08.
Guess trying to read between the lines....
Have a good weekend, everybody.
Cheo. |
